Reading the DJT-Leaves
(Or, Understanding Policymaking By Tourettes – PbT)
The political hurricane coming out of the White House is rocking Washington with folks diving for cover in all directions. It’s not necessarily a bad thing … in theory … buuut …
First a little context:
Is the US Government too big and too expensive? Yes.
Is it in need of reform across the board? Certainly.
Is the immigration / border crisis in need of drastic action. Obviously.
Is the job of our leaders to put American First? Of course, what else would it be?
Does the excessive DEI and woke-ness need to be dialed back a notch or two? Please.
Do our education and foreign aid systems need to be more effective. Like, yesterday.
Do most Americans like to see bold moves by our President? Usually.
As a sidenote, I’ve done a few home remodels before, you know, a bathroom redo or expanding a room. The demolition phase only takes a couple hours. And brainlessly swingin’ the sledgehammer is actually kinda fun. Therapeutic even. The hard part, the time-consuming part, the part that requires real skill is installing the new stuff with precision to make it better, more functional, and more beautiful than the original.
I have no problem with President Trump breaking the crockery of US policy and government structures. Largely overdue. In most cases (but not all) he is targeting the right issues to attack. My problem is that I have zero confidence that anyone in the Administration has any clue how to build a better replacement after the carnage. A reflective Nixon (post-presidency) said that winning a revolution is not easy, but governing after winning is far more difficult. (He also said that a carpenter is far better for society than a bad lawyer.)
Will any of this work? Unclear, but here is a playbook and guide to evaluate whether the actions unfolding are smart-ish:
The Punch in the Face: Trump uses a tactic that I have seen other ballsy leaders employ to reasonable success. That is, clobber someone in the face before even saying hello, then ask, “So, you wanna talk?” It puts people on their heels and eliminates the diplo-blah-blah; it forces the parties to get right to point immediately. What we should look for: how does the punched react and what does the puncher put in his pocket as a result.
Justification by anecdote: Politicians use isolated, egregious events to stimulate outrage to build support for an action – even if the anecdote, while true, does not reflect the reality of the larger scope or trend. Immigrant rapists! Stop the steal! USAID is corrupt! Fentanyl pouring in from our northern border! Effective use of anecdotes jazz people up into a lather, but it’s a lazy method of arguing for a policy position. Yet it often works because most people aren’t pay attention.
Hypocrisy as a Correction: Slick leaders will cry foul about an action by their political enemy only to issue a correction that will result in the exact same tactic in their favor. Biden’s cleverly named “Inflation Reduction Act” unleased massive government spending on pet projects that contributed to… inflation. For Trump, he’s cleaning out the DOJ based on claims that it was politically weaponized against him. He is now filling the DOJ with his people so that he can… wait for it… weaponize it to go after his political enemies. We will see more of this. Lesson: Don’t get fooled by a flashy name of a policy when it actually does the opposite.
Fluff Removal: In his speeches, the President is a master of hyperbole sans substance. Greatest in the history of our nation! Worst deal ever! Golden age of America! We’ve been ripped off for decades! I will fix the war in Ukraine in one day! [Insert here] the likes of which we’ve never seen! However, if you remove all the fluff and lay bare the actual substance of the argument, the bones of policy positions are scraggly at best. Which leads me to believe that little thought or analysis was performed behind the scenes to produce the position. Again, it often works because people just don’t pay attention. Lesson: Isolate the core substance.
Information Sources: Today’s journalism is complete trash… on all sides. Shame on the journalism industry; we need you more than ever and you are the WWE of information. Virtually every news source gives you half the story – the half they want you to hear – then they pile on the commentary to drive you to think what they want you to think. Fox News is trash. MSNBC is worse trash. CNN is trashier than it thinks it is. Network news is trash in 8-second bites between commercials. Sure, I look at the headlines of these sources, but only to see what the garbage looks like today. Where to go? For me, PBS Newshour and Fareed Zakaria are the only things I see close to credible. USA Today is like the Playschool of journalism written in thick crayon but at least it avoids pushing an agenda. Be careful what you ingest. You are what you eat.
Let Me Introduce My Team: Responding to the recent aircraft tragedy in DC, the President emphasized the need for superior, qualified talent in the ranks of air traffic controllers. Absolutely. Then how does he nominate Tulsi Gabbard for DNI, RFK Jr. for HHS, and Kash Patel for FBI? Or recent high school graduates as DOGE investigators to evaluate senior government personnel and systems? Seeds of sycophantic disaster. New blood is fine, but these are collectively the least qualified cabinet nominees in history since Rex Tillerson dined alone. Let’s watch how these junior woodchucks manage their portfolios.
Conceding Article One: When I was working in Congress for a Republican Committee Chairman, we understood that the other side of the aisle was our political enemy. Even more importantly, however, we understood that the Executive Branch was our Constitutional adversary. Establish the laws of the land; power of the purse; responsibility of oversight; Congressional intent. These are serious duties. This Congress, especially Republicans, are abdicating their Constitutional responsibilities for governing. ARTICLE ONE, not two, not three, not four. ONE. Our Legislative Branch is sunk to be on par with the quality of our press. Where is MAFCA? – Make America Follow the Constitution Again. (Just sound it out and it will make more sense.) Watch for how Congress responds … or fails to respond.
Where’d All My Friends Go? Rule #1 in foreign policy is to not treat your enemies better than you treat your friends. Canada? Seriously? That’s who we are going to crap on, eh? It is wisdom to be privately blunt with your allies, but the objective is to gather them close. Crushing your enemies is fine if needed, but the objective is to remove them as a threat. If all you have is a hammer, then everything looks like a nail. Bully-mode-only reflects amateur hour at the levers of power. The world is not filled only with nails. Being feared is not a bad thing; but battering a friendship will drive your allies quietly into the arms of another. (Ahem, rhymes with “China.”) Watch for the difference in how we treat our friends versus how we treat our enemies.
After the Photo Op: Lastly, but most importantly, what happens after the sledgehammer headline? Trump has a political disorder called Policymaking by Tourettes, or PtB Syndrome. (With apologies to the Tourette community. Although Baylen Out Loud is my new favorite show.) His tic is to involuntarily blurt out a solution from the furthest edges of impropriety on critical issues. (Riviera of the Middle East!) These verbal spasms are void of thoughtfulness and catches everyone by surprise, leaving his staff with the task of damage control and his yes-men (gender neutral) contorting to find a statement of support. Look, I love the thought of a bold President (Gulf of America!) but because every word of the President is critical, boldness needs to be deliberate by design, with an envisoned endstate, and a viable pathway to get us there. (The crash was caused by DEI!) Keep your attention on policy implementation long after attention has shifted to the next outburst.
Repeating the theme of my home improvement scenario: demolition is easy, building a better replacement is hard.
Photo Op with Rocket Man Kim Jong Un? Okay, what happened then? (Zip.)
Build the Wall! Okay, then what? (700 miles of no difference.)
Invade Iraq! Okay, then what? (Sorry, wrong president.)
Rip up the Iran Nuclear Deal! Okay, then what? (Nada.)
Destroy Obamacare! Okay, then what? (Bumpkiss.)
Sign the Abraham Accords! (Wait, that one was actually really good.)
Abolish the Department of Education! Okay, then what?
Abolish USAID! Okay, then what?
Pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement! Okay, then what?
Fire all the government Inspectors General! Okay, then what?
Buy out lots of CIA employees! Okay, then what?
With many more on the way.
PtB may carve out momentary power, but it ages quickly because people catch on. Something about a boy crying wolf and a dog’s bark and his bite. A President’s greatest asset is his credibility. Leave PbT for Bannon on the radio. It’s not a good look when the world rolls its collective eyes at our President.
My angst with President Trump is not his fearlessness or bravado. He’s setting afire many of the right relics of policy and government. Like many folks, I kinda like it. However, I am petrified that it is all de-struction and no con-struction. Disruption is great, but I have less-than-zero confidence that he has fixers in the wings who can jump in to rebuild with the thoughtful sophistication required to produce a superior product. (Musk ain’t it. He’s the R-word.) If, by some slight chance, the President does have a refurbishment plan ready to pounce, we are likely to see the JV team from Potemkin-R-Us.
We are either going to have an American landscape of smoldering ashes of a government that no longer functions at all or wonderfully rebuilt edifices that deliver better results. My hope is for the latter but my money is on the former. Either way, the President will declare victory … via fluff and anecdotes, of course.
